对于4.5%-5.0%的加息终点,可能还是太乐观了。
大家可以看看这个图:
①从1960到2022,六十年时间,每一次通胀高企,Fed fund rate都要超过CPI的水平CPI才有显著回落,就是蓝线要超过红线的高度,无一例外。而现在CPI是8.2%,Fed fund rate 是3.00%-3.25%,11月加75bp,也就是到3.75%-4.00%。
②JP摩根 CEO Jamie Dimon,可以说是全球最优秀的金融机构CEO,他怎么说的?“鉴于通胀率的持续,“直觉”告诉他,美国的基准利率可能必须高于许多经济学家预测的4%-4.5%水平。S&P 500的第二个20%下跌将比第一个20%更加令人痛苦。”
大家可以看看这个图:
①从1960到2022,六十年时间,每一次通胀高企,Fed fund rate都要超过CPI的水平CPI才有显著回落,就是蓝线要超过红线的高度,无一例外。而现在CPI是8.2%,Fed fund rate 是3.00%-3.25%,11月加75bp,也就是到3.75%-4.00%。
②JP摩根 CEO Jamie Dimon,可以说是全球最优秀的金融机构CEO,他怎么说的?“鉴于通胀率的持续,“直觉”告诉他,美国的基准利率可能必须高于许多经济学家预测的4%-4.5%水平。S&P 500的第二个20%下跌将比第一个20%更加令人痛苦。”
#林彦俊[超话]##林彦俊# #林彦俊我们一直在# #林彦俊为你千千万万遍#
I like the way the rain falls on the leaves, because that scene once struck my heart.
喜欢雨滴落在树叶的方式,因为那一幕曾经敲打在我心上。 ♥
Te amol .
@林彦俊 心悦你的第105天 .
I like the way the rain falls on the leaves, because that scene once struck my heart.
喜欢雨滴落在树叶的方式,因为那一幕曾经敲打在我心上。 ♥
Te amol .
@林彦俊 心悦你的第105天 .
对冲基金大佬Einhorn:价值投资可能再也回不来了
1. 目前这个行情,大多数价值投资者已经破产了(out of business),所以市场结构发生了极其严重的改变。(意思是市场上炒客、投机盛行。)
2. 就算没破产,”我们(Enhorn认为自己是价投)也剩得不多了“,很多人要么转去做了量化,要么就粗暴直接做被动指数投资。以价投的方法训练出来的基金经理在市场上不多了。
3.因为市场上的价投少了,所以真正关心公司基本面的投资者就少了,以至于非常多的公司被错误定价。交易者甚至完全不知道自己的交易标的,到底大概值多少
以下是英文报道原文:
Hedge fund manager David Einhorn said he doesn’t know if value investing will ever be in vogue again.
“I don’t know that it ever comes back,” the Green Capital founder said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television on the sidelines of the Robin Hood Investors Conference in New York. Einhorn, 53, said most value investors are being put out of business, citing “serious changes to the market structure.”
“There’s just very few of us left,” he said, adding that most market participants these days are not trained or experienced in value investing, or have shifted to passive or quantitative investing.
Fewer players means there’s no one to notice what’s happening to these companies and “nobody knows what anything is worth,” Einhorn said. “So there’s an enormous number of companies that are dramatically mis-valued in ways that we haven’t seen before.”
1. 目前这个行情,大多数价值投资者已经破产了(out of business),所以市场结构发生了极其严重的改变。(意思是市场上炒客、投机盛行。)
2. 就算没破产,”我们(Enhorn认为自己是价投)也剩得不多了“,很多人要么转去做了量化,要么就粗暴直接做被动指数投资。以价投的方法训练出来的基金经理在市场上不多了。
3.因为市场上的价投少了,所以真正关心公司基本面的投资者就少了,以至于非常多的公司被错误定价。交易者甚至完全不知道自己的交易标的,到底大概值多少
以下是英文报道原文:
Hedge fund manager David Einhorn said he doesn’t know if value investing will ever be in vogue again.
“I don’t know that it ever comes back,” the Green Capital founder said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television on the sidelines of the Robin Hood Investors Conference in New York. Einhorn, 53, said most value investors are being put out of business, citing “serious changes to the market structure.”
“There’s just very few of us left,” he said, adding that most market participants these days are not trained or experienced in value investing, or have shifted to passive or quantitative investing.
Fewer players means there’s no one to notice what’s happening to these companies and “nobody knows what anything is worth,” Einhorn said. “So there’s an enormous number of companies that are dramatically mis-valued in ways that we haven’t seen before.”
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